Where Are We Goooing? What Are We Dooooing?

It’s hard for me to say, or even speculate on, what the book industry will look like in another decade. I’m sure some people were predicting what we are currently going through 10 years ago, but the majority of us were probably just happily reading our physical copies of books from libraries and bookstores.

That being said, I think the technology-for-reading trend will continue to grow. We are all more and more dependent on computers and other technology. It’s hard to imagine how anything even got done at Ooligan before we had Google Sites and ooliganpress.pdx.edu e-mail addresses. And that was, what? Only 2 terms ago?

More people are going to be reading books in electronic format. Whether this format is the Kindle or iPad (which I’m leaning toward), or another format, e-book editions will become more popular. I think the biggest jump will be in younger generations. I’m very interested to see how this plays out in the textbook industry. I think as an undergrad, I would have loved to be able to get my textbooks on an e-reader. Especially when I was taking my classes that required huge, expensive books that I would never read again. I wonder if there will be some sort of way to rent that content, like pay for the book for the 11 weeks of the term. Most of my undergrad classes, I never looked at the book again, so it would have worked perfectly.

As far as publishing companies, I think some will embrace the trends and be successful. Others will continue on with the current model and fail. I think we will see consolidation continue, and probably some of the bigger publishing companies taking smaller ones on as imprints. There will be a growth in small publishers, though I think it will still be a tough-go for most, even with POD technology increasing.

I can’t see the big-box chains surviving very well. Inventory is expensive to ship and maintain, and I think more people will be ordering from Amazon anyway. I certainly don’t think they will disappear within the next ten years, but I think we will start seeing a big shift. Maybe things will be good for used bookstores in that case…

All of this raises interesting questions about reading. Are children going to start learning to read on electronic devices? That seems absurd, but who knows? Again, I can’t see that in the next decade, but if we start to transition more away from the printed book, there will certainly be implications for reading, literacy, and learning in general.